Unlike many of his investors
and the analysts who follow his company, I wasn't sent scrambling to consult Star Trek or the Marvel comics to
discover why Mark Zuckerberg had swooped for the mysterious sounding Oculus
Rift last year – let alone why he thought Facebook should spend $2 billion on
it.
The games industry had kept me
ahead of the wider technology space. Virtual Reality had been back on our radar
for at least 18 months before the Facebook CEO got out his wallet.
Zuckerberg surely suspects
that Facebook's flat desktop experience – or even its increasingly
dominant mobile fly-by interface – will one day be about as relevant as using
smoke signals to ask your hunter-gatherer neighbour to bring over a couple of
extra wooly mammoth steaks for the cave bake.
He certainly wasn't about to
let some VR incubated social network get a head start. However we choose to swap
cat photos and pictures of our lunch in years to come, Zuckerberg is willing to
spend billions to be part of it.
Pie in the pixelated sky?
The same should be true of
game developers. As I say, we had a jump start on Virtual Reality 2.0.
Yet most I meet are highly
sceptical that VR will EVER be how we play games, let along that we'll do it
anytime soon.
For instance, Sony was demoing
its Project Morpheus headset at the last Develop conference, and plenty of
attendees took it out for a spin.
The verdict? Cooler than they expected, but nothing to rival franchises like Far Cry, FIFA, Dragon Age or Grand Theft Auto.
Now, I think they'd be right
if they were talking about the next couple of years, though perhaps wrong if they're
thinking the next ten.
But many game developers seem
to mean… forever!
Let’s get real
This is madness. The future of
interactive entertainment is VR. The question is when not if.
All you need to know to make
this prediction is Moore's Law.
To jump to the end of the
story, ever-increasing processing power means we'll eventually have VR that is
practically indistinguishable from our current reality (assuming we escape
global warming or nuclear Armageddon on the way, of course.)
Will it take 20 years, 50 years,
or 200 years?
Search me, but if I look at
the difference between Spacewar from
the 1960s or Pong from the 1970s and
the sort of games we see on next-gen consoles today, then I'm inclined to bet
on brilliant engineering and programming delivering it sooner rather than
later.
But anyway the fact is we
don't need true reality in a headset (or whatever device VR eventually settles
into) for VR games to be sufficiently compelling.
Something very close to
reality will be achieved many decades before we get to perfection.
That near-reality experience
will be so immersive, empowering, exciting and even frightening that the idea
that anyone is going to instead sit in front of a TV fiddling with a joypad is
laughable.
Virtual Rome wasn't built in a day
Just because I believe VR will
eventually be achieved and universal, that doesn't mean I think it will be easy
getting there.
We don't yet have the
scaffolding to create a convincing VR sock drawer, let alone a fully immersive
world.
But VR games today have as
much in common with where VR games will end up as a Punch and Judy puppet show
has with Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens.
There is so much to be
invented, tested, and learned.
And that's why I believe VR
will be the most exciting area to work in games over the next few years.
For all the advances in what
we used to call multimedia, we're still near the bottom of a Mount Everest that
has to be scaled.
Or to mix metaphors, while
films can now conjure up utterly lifelike scenes – given sufficient talent and months
of rendering time – when it comes to live, interactive VR entertainment, we're
gazing across the Uncanny Valley.
We're wondering when to take
our first hesitant steps downhill. It'll be years before we can even think
about climbing out the other side.
Tomorrow's world
Old hands have seen this sort
of thing before. It reminds me of the consensus that said 3D would never be
mainstream in video games, because how would you do side-scrolling platform
games in 3D?
Soon enough, Super Mario 64 and Tomb Raider showed you couldn't quite achieve the same thing
– but you could do something better.
Or think about mobile games.
I co-founded Pocket Gamer in 2005 when most people's
idea of fun on a phone was Snake on a
Nokia. Game developers were at the forefront when it came to scoffing.
But the technology moved
incredibly fast, and now mobile is arguably the most popular platform for
games.
Similarly, over the next few
years, experimentation and innovation by pioneering game developers will
radically improve VR entertainment, and along the way lay down the laws of
virtual reality for generations to come.
How fast should a VR player
turn and move? Can a static player be made to believe they can jump and fly?
And what to do when a player
leans into a supposedly solid wall? Go black or fade out or send an
electric shock through the headset? (Well, perhaps not that last…)
Forget Facebook or even the
first true Virtual Reality Super Mario.
I have a hunch that VR game
developers will work out the first 'rules' of a ubiquitous digital reality – one
that someday we'll all live in.
Blog by Owain Bennallack, freelance journalist and member of Develop: Brighton advisory board.
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